Solana (SOL-USD) has hovered near $81 after a sharp 38% decline over the last month and a roughly 50% drop from its year-ago peak. Trading has oscillated within a $76.5 to $90.5 band, repeatedly failing to sustain gains above the upper boundary and sitting near the lower end of the range. Price remains below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 50-day crossing below the 200-day, signaling a downtrend rather than a mere correction. Near-term support sits around $80–$82, with a more meaningful floor near $76–$76.5, followed by $73 and the February low near $67.5.
On the upside, a first hurdle lies at $87–$90, followed by the psychological $100 level, with a potential move toward $110 if momentum shifts. Derivatives data show the weakness extends beyond spot selling, with futures volume around $8.0 billion and open interest near $5.2 billion as price trends lower. Negative funding remains in place, with the funding rate around -0.013%, implying ongoing short exposure. Meanwhile, the long-to-short ratio sits around 1.4, indicating a sizable group betting on a rebound even as bears remain in control.
Together, negative funding and a high long-to-short ratio imply a divided market, with bears pressing the trend while some traders fade the move. On-chain activity presents a mixed backdrop: new wallet creation has risen while SOL trades in the low-80s, about 67% below the $249 peak seen in September 2025. The SOPR has recovered from deep losses, but the move has not yet translated into a durable upturn, and profit-taking can still punctuate rallies. Historically, rising SOPR and wallet activity during a drawdown have not guaranteed a reversal, as profit-taking can spike when breakeven is approached.
Liquidity trends provide a mixed backdrop: Solana spot ETFs posted modest inflows, and institutional products recorded net inflows around $31 million in the latest week, suggesting continued interest from larger investors even as sentiment remains cautious. These inflows cushion downside moves but have not reversed the downtrend, especially with derivatives leaning short. Solana’s social dominance has collapsed from multi-percentage levels to fractions of a percent, as the mania-era noise fades. However, a weaker narrative can overshoot on the downside if operational issues resurface, prompting investors to retreat.
Recent operational issues, including validator advisories and routing disruptions, underscore that Solana’s speed comes with complexity, even as patches reduce risk. Macro dynamics favor the bears: hawkish Fed rhetoric and a stronger dollar have tended to punish higher-beta names like Solana before any meaningful macro relief. A stronger dollar and a cautious tone tend to pressure high-beta names like Solana more than the majors, limiting upside attempts toward $90–$100 without macro relief. Momentum remains weak, with the RSI in the low 30s and the MACD showing only a tentative bullish crossover as price continues to drift lower.
Solana remains below the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with the 50-day still below the 200-day, keeping the overall trend bearish until a decisive close above $90. Downside risk centers around $80–$82 as the first test, followed by the $76–$76.5 floor and then the $67.5 level; breaking below could target the $60–$62 zone. An upside break above $87–$90, especially with supportive volume and a shift in funding toward neutral, would mark the first credible sign of a trend change toward $100. If that occurs with SOPR pushing above 1, CMF crossing back into positive territory and ETF inflows staying positive, the case for an extension toward $110 strengthens.
Otherwise, a spike toward $100 is more likely to be a short-covering burst than the start of a durable advance. Overall, Solana is in a late-stage downtrend, with the next 20–25% move oriented by macro momentum and funding signals rather than fresh buyers. Until conditions align for a durable reversal—such as SOPR above 1, positive CMF readings, and ETF inflows sustaining—a disciplined neutral stance remains prudent, with rallies treated as tactical opportunities.
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