Bitcoin has been oscillating near the 200-week moving average as futures market activity signals a potential rebound. The 200-week moving average sits close to $68,350, a level traders watch for longer-term support. CME futures position shifts among large speculative players have intensified talk of a possible rebound.
On February 22 local time, Bitcoin traded at $67,362, down 1.57% from the previous 24 hours on CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin dominance stood at 58.28%. Ethereum fell 2.30% to $1,943.
Among major altcoins, XRP declined 4.11% to $1.38, Solana slipped 3.31% to $83.19, and Dogecoin dropped 4.57% to $0.094. Binance Coin declined 2.44% to $611, and Cardano was down 3.92% at $0.269, while Tron rose 0.42% to $0.29. Recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show non-commercial traders’ net Bitcoin futures position shrinking to about -1,600 contracts from roughly +1,000 a month earlier, signaling a rapid unwind of the net short bias toward a long tilt.
Hedge funds and other large institutions appear to be reducing bearish bets and increasing long exposure. Technically, the price remains below the 200-week moving average near $68,350, and the weekly RSI sits in oversold territory. If the 68,350 barrier is reclaimed, a rally toward the 100-week moving average near $85,000 could be in play. Macro optimism is mounting, with Raul Pal of Real Vision arguing Bitcoin is trading at a deep discount relative to global liquidity and could approach $140,000 if historical relationships hold.
Yet others caution that the smart-money shift is a condition, not a signal, and similar patterns have led to steep declines in the past. Mining companies are feeling the squeeze as profitability worsens; BitDeer reportedly sold all held BTC after a 14.7% spike in network difficulty, with hashprice slipping below $30 per PH/s per day. BitDeer also issued a $325 million convertible note to restructure debt and expand AI and data-center projects. Bitcoin’s long-term support at the 200-week moving average remains a key variable as futures positioning and liquidity conditions evolve. With the 200-week defense in view, the path higher may hinge on regaining that level and restoring momentum.
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