Bitcoin’s bearish case rests on the view that a tightening of global liquidity would squeeze prices back toward the $10,000 level, a notion popularized by Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone. McGlone suggests that $10,000 represents Bitcoin’s long-term statistical center, arguing that the surge beyond it reflected extraordinary monetary expansion rather than durable value. He also characterizes Bitcoin as a high-beta extension of equities, implying that any liquidity shock could cause BTC to unwind more than traditional risk assets.
Yet, rising structural demand from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and significant corporate holdings complicate that thesis. US spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold a sizeable portion of total supply, and public companies have accumulated millions of BTC, providing a structural bid that may limit downside even as liquidity tightens. In addition, advocates point to evolving market dynamics—ETFs, institutional buyers, and continued dominance of Bitcoin in risk-off environments—supporting a bid floor even under stress.
Technicals further suggest a different narrative: while some models point to a floor around the mid-40s to low-50s, momentum has kept BTC trading above key trendlines and the 200-week moving average, underscoring the resilience of demand as liquidity conditions shift. Taken together, the combination of ETF-driven demand, corporate exposure, and evolving market structure presents a more nuanced outlook than a simple slide to $10,000, indicating that Bitcoin’s path in 2026 may hinge more on liquidity regimes and institutional flows than on a return to pre-stimulus price levels.
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