Bitcoin has posted gains in half of the past 24 months, a sign that investors watch for potential upside. Economist Timothy Peterson noted that 50% of the past 24 months were positive, implying an 88% probability that Bitcoin will be higher ten months from now. Bitcoin was trading around $68,173, about 25% below its level at the start of the year.
In 2025, Bitcoin posted gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September, while the other six months ended lower. Traders on crypto prediction platform Polymarket are giving December a 17% chance of being Bitcoin’s best month of 2026, just behind November at 18%. Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest-performing month on average since 2013, with an average return of 41.13%.
Peterson’s forecast comes as crypto market sentiment continues to decline. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted an Extreme Fear score of 9 on Sunday, signaling extreme caution among investors. Santiment described a drying up of Bitcoin price predictions on social media among crypto market participants as a healthy indicator as sentiment returns to neutral.
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