Onchain data tracking Bitcoin’s (BTC) investor profitability has dropped back toward the long-term average, indicating a possible valuation reset. These changes are shaping the expectations around when stronger spot demand may return for BTC and whether or not this would lead to a trend reversal. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish said that the Bitcoin market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has normalized after the prior +1 standard deviation extremes were fully reset.
The MVRV compares the market capitalization to the realized capitalization to gauge the investor’s profitability. A compression toward the long-term mean places the valuations near levels that have previously offered improved risk-reward, though BTC has not yet entered a deep undervalued territory. Likewise, the realized capitalization, which measures the total value of Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved onchain, has fallen to $1.09 trillion from its November 2025 peak of $1.12 trillion, a contraction of roughly $33 billion in network value.
The 30-day change stands at -2.26%, pointing to the sustained capital outflows. According to BTC researcher Axel Adler Jr., the coins aged three to six months now account for 25.9% of the supply, marking the largest cohort. Many of these positions were opened near the cycle highs and now sit underwater.
Together, these signals describe the defensive phase. The BTC holders are not capitulating in size, while the new capital inflows have not yet reversed the realized cap trend. Adler Jr. said that the current trend remains “neutrally defensive” until the cap returns to the positive momentum.
The BTC volume delta shows the cautious absorption. The exchange flow data aligns with that stance. The Glassnode data shows the spot cumulative volume delta improved to -$161.5 million from -$177.1 million, signaling a modest reduction in the aggressive selling.
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