We are now in the midst of a deep crypto winter, one which some analysts say is the worst on record. Ethereum is trading around $1,900, more than 50 per cent below its August 2025 peak, while Bitcoin is down around 25 per cent year-to-date. Crypto surged in 2025 amid a favorable climate, with a supportive administration in the White House expected by some to spark a historic rally. This extended period of poor performance has wiped trillions from crypto’s market cap, and this slump has sparked renewed fears that Bitcoin could go to zero.
However, while some strategists forecast that the frosty conditions will continue, others see an end in sight. Among crypto bulls, there remains optimism that the winter will thaw soon, and they point to the lack of a clear catalyst for the sell-off as evidence that the structural case for crypto remains intact. Danny Nelson, research analyst at Bitwise, said we are certainly in a crypto winter, but the asset class is getting stronger, adding that these changes are going to last well beyond the current downturn. Tom Lee, the Fundstrat co-founder, predicts the winter could end as early as April, arguing that BTC and ETH are trading around, or have already hit, the bottom, and disclosures show Bitmine continues to accumulate ETH despite substantial unrealised losses.
In a recent article for The Motley Fool, contributing stock market analyst Neil Patel put the bull case simply, telling readers the fundamentals are holding up. He noted that Bitcoin’s price has fallen more than 50 per cent on numerous occasions, and acknowledged there is no shortage of guesses about the causes of the crash. US Bitcoin ETFs have seen five weeks of consecutive outflows since the end of January, totaling around $4.5 billion year-to-date, and Morningstar’s Michael Field says this does not indicate an exodus, but that BTC is not meeting safe-haven expectations. The upside case sees ETF flows stabilizing and renewed retail and institutional accumulation, potentially translating DeFi and tokenization narratives into real-world use, but many analysts remain divided about whether the thaw will accelerate or stall.
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