XRP Mirrors 2016-17 Setup as Analysts See Potential Recovery

XRP extends a multi-month downturn as analysts compare current action to 2016-17 patterns, suggesting a rebound is possible though a 60,000% surge remains unlikely.

Rich by Coin

2026-02-24

XRP is on track to close its fifth consecutive month in negative territory, with February losses near 30% and a five-month decline of about 50%, according to CoinGecko data. The last time XRP printed five straight red monthly candles was between October 2016 and February 2017, when the price slipped from $0.00885 to $0.00557 before bottoming near $0.0055 in March 2017. From that low, XRP surged to $0.3988 in May 2017—a gain of 7,000% in two months—and eventually climbed to $3.31 in January 2018, marking a 60,000% increase from the 2017 low.

With XRP now following a similar path, market analyst Sam Daodu noted that the current setup “rhymes” with the 2016–2017 structure: five consecutive months of declines, tightening price action, and signs that selling pressure may be exhausting itself. However, he cautioned that the market environment has changed dramatically since XRP was a micro-cap token; in 2017, XRP’s total market value was less than $300 million, whereas today it’s about $88 billion, making a 60,000% surge virtually impossible under realistic conditions. A comparable rally would imply a move to roughly $852 per token, and with about 58 billion XRP in circulation, that would translate to a market capitalization above $49 trillion — more than the combined value of all NYSE-listed stocks. Still, Daodu argues that while a repeat of the 2017 explosion is off the table, a meaningful recovery remains within reach if the bottoming pattern holds, with a return to XRP’s July 2025 high of $3.65 representing about a 157% gain, and a move toward $5 (near the top of 2026 forecasts) equating to roughly a 252% rise.

The driver of gains in this cycle, Daodu notes, would likely shift from retail speculation to institutional demand, including ETF inflows and broader crypto-market recovery. While Standard Chartered trimmed its XRP target by 65% to $2.80, the forecast still implies roughly a 97% rise from current prices. In summary, another 60,000% rally is unlikely, but a 150% to 250% advance remains possible if momentum shifts and capital returns to the sector.