Dogecoin [DOGE], at the time of writing, was trading at a key structural and technical level. According to AMBCrypto, the leading memecoin was trading at a rare historical discount, potentially building a long-term base before the next rebound. The “number of days spent at profit” on-chain metric, which measures the number of historical trading days that traded above the press time price, was 1100. This was an all-time high, which meant that a large chunk of DOGE holders were underwater.
Conditions like these emerge during late-stage corrections. It may be indicative of a large overhead supply and plenty of long-term DOGE bag holders. The structural cycle metric did not seem to warn of an imminent market bottom either. The Dogecoin Hodler Net Position Change metric measures the monthly position change of long-term investors, or hodlers.
Negative readings show investors cashing out, and positive changes indicate Hodlers were buying. During the 2021 rally and the late 2024 rally, we did see sizeable chunks of DOGE sold during the cycle tops. The clearest examples were April-May 2021, October-November 2021, and November-December 2021. It appeared that long-term investors were eager to book profits, and many successfully recognized overextended Dogecoin market conditions.
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