Bitcoin bulls need a 9% rally from current levels to take the advantage in Friday’s $10.5 billion options expiry. The 90% correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index shows that tech investor sentiment drives market confidence. Bitcoin (BTC) price surged to an eight-day high on Wednesday, successfully forming a double bottom near the $62,500 level. Despite these recent gains, Bitcoin price remains 21% lower than it was one month ago, suggesting bulls are unlikely to come out ahead during Friday’s $10.5 billion monthly BTC options expiry.
Whether bulls can flip the tables at the last minute and shift momentum back in their favor remains up in the air. Deribit remains the dominant leader with a 76% market share, totaling $4.5 billion in call (buy) options and $3.4 billion in put (sell) instruments. OKX follows in second place with $610 million in calls and $385 million in puts, representing 10% of the aggregate total. CME rounded out the top three with $255 million in calls and $287 million in puts, accounting for a 5% market share.
Put options are better positioned despite having less open interest. At first glance, the aggregate put options open interest appears 25% lower than equivalent call options. However, a more granular view reveals that neutral-to-bullish strategies were caught off guard by Bitcoin’s sharp decline below $75,000 in early February. 88% of call options on Deribit will expire worthless if the Bitcoin price remains below $70,000 on Friday.
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