Geopolitical tensions and hotter US PPI data sent XRP lower for a second straight session.
US producer prices rose 2.9% year over year, cooling near-term Fed rate cut expectations.
Despite bearish technicals, XRP-spot ETF demand has persisted, supporting a mid-term target around $2.00.
XRP tumbled 17.7% in February, reaffirming a cautiously bearish short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $1.0.
Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.0.
Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0.
Several scenarios could derail the constructive medium-term bias.
These factors would weigh on XRP, push the token toward $1.0, and reaffirm the cautiously bearish short-term outlook.
Traders should also monitor Bank of Japan rhetoric and USDJPY trends, given the effect of the mid-2024 yen carry trade unwind on XRP.
A hawkish Bank of Japan neutral rate estimate (1.5%-2.5%) would imply multiple rate hikes.
Historical price action highlights XRP’s sensitivity to BoJ policy decisions and USDJPY price action.
The BoJ’s more hawkish-than-expected July 2024 monetary policy decision sent USDJPY crashing from 153.889 to 139.576.
Looking ahead, updates from the Middle East and reports from Capitol Hill on crypto-related regulations will be key for XRP’s price outlook.
A US military strike will likely trigger an XRP sell-off.
However, progress of the Market Structure Bill would limit the losses and reinforce the bullish medium- to longer-term outlook for XRP.
Meanwhile, central bank rhetoric, US economic data, US-Iran talks, and XRP-spot ETF flows will also influence XRP’s price trajectory.
Leave a Reply