XRP has faced sustained selling pressure through early 2026, with the price lingering in capitulation as holders endure mounting unrealized losses. Since the start of January, the token has extended a downtrend, repeatedly failing to reclaim major resistance levels amid weak macro sentiment and geopolitical tensions. On-chain indicators show investors remain in capitulation. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric indicates ongoing unrealized losses, while the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) confirms many holders are selling at a loss.
Seasonality suggests March may be favorable, with historical data showing an average 18% return for XRP in the month. At the time of writing, XRP trades near $1.29, just above the $1.27 bear-market support and near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. If capitulation ends and macro conditions stabilize, XRP could bounce from $1.27 and attempt to break the descending trendline in place since January. A move above $1.51 would signal a structural shift, aligning with the 61.8% retracement.
On-chain data points to limited resistance up to the $1.76–$1.80 zone. However, failure to hold $1.27 would undermine the bullish case and could push XRP toward $1.11. They underscore continued risk and opportunity for March.
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