Rich by Coin

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argues that sustained tensions in the Middle East could push Bitcoin higher as the Fed cuts rates and expands dollar liquidity. He says the pattern has repeated for about 40 years, with U.S. Middle East confrontations historically followed by easing measures. Hayes cites precedents including the Gulf War in 1990, when the Fed signaled easing and later cut rates, and the 2001 post-9/11 period, when Greenspan cut rates by 50 basis points to support the economy.

During the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, long-term easing was pursued. In 2009, during the Obama administration’s Afghanistan surge, zero rates and quantitative easing were already in place, leaving little room for additional rate cuts.

Hayes also notes that Trump’s stance on regime change in Iran aligns with this pattern, providing political cover for easing. He points to a long-term trend since 1985 in which spending on the Department of Veterans Affairs has risen faster than total federal outlays, and major military operations have tended to coincide with lower Fed funds rates.

While Hayes remains bullish in the long run, he cautions investors to be patient in the near term and to wait for actual Fed cuts or dollar expansion before buying Bitcoin and certain altcoins. He concludes that smart investors should observe how events unfold before committing more capital to crypto.

Bitcoin was trading around $66,200 at the time of writing, about 30% lower year over year and roughly 47% below the October 2025 high of $126,000. The asset has fallen for five consecutive months, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in extreme fear.