Both Kalshi ($9.93B) and Polymarket ($7.94B) posted MoM increases of nearly 4% in February. Polymarket volume surged 32% WoW with help from Khamenei markets to close the gap on Kalshi. The State of the Union was a volume driver last week, but maybe even more importantly a headline driver. Trump’s State of the Union address on Feb. 24 generated more than $17 million in combined mention volume across both platforms.
Total notional volume across tracked prediction exchanges rebounded to $5.80 billion for the week of Feb. 23–March 1, a 10.4% gain from the $5.25 billion posted the prior week. Polymarket surged 31.9% to $2.40 billion — its largest weekly showing since Jan. 26–Feb. 1 — while Kalshi posted a more steady 5.4% gain to $2.73 billion. Kalshi’s share of combined K+P volume fell from 58.7% the prior week to 53.2% this week, the tightest it has been in the six-week tracking window. From Feb. 2 through Feb. 22, Kalshi held an average share of 58.1% of combined volume, buoyed by its sports dominance through and after the Super Bowl. This week, Polymarket added $580 million in absolute volume WoW. Kalshi added roughly $139 million.
This week, Polymarket added $580 million in absolute volume WoW. Kalshi added roughly $139 million.
Polymarket’s Iran-related contracts — operating outside U.S. CFTC jurisdiction — accumulated over $200 million in volume across four markets, according to our reporting on the Kalshi and Polymarket Khamenei market dispute. Kalshi’s “Khamenei out” contract drew more than $50 million before trading was halted and positions settled at the last traded price before death. The Saturday morning military strike, in particular, accounted for a significant share of Polymarket’s $580 million WoW volume gain. Polymarket’s big three: Sports (34.5%), Crypto (29.6%), and Politics including Trump markets (32.6%) account for 96.7% of all Polymarket volume. Kalshi’s Exotics ($152.3M, 5.6%), which has no direct Polymarket equivalent, is the second-largest non-sports category on Kalshi and worth watching as a differentiator heading into March Madness.
The SOTU impact: Kalshi’s Politics category hit $115.5 million (4.2% of its total) and Polymarket’s combined Politics + Trump came in at $783.0 million (32.6%) last week. February 2026 total notional volume across all tracked platforms closed at $22.3 billion, the second-highest month on record and the first monthly decline since August 2025. With the next Fed decision scheduled for March 18–19, odds for no rate cut in March have been trading above 96% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, reflecting consistent cross-platform alignment on the near-term rate path. Kalshi’s World Cup liquidity is set to build further as March Madness concludes, while Polymarket’s structural advantage in politics and macro positions it well as that cycle accelerates.
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