Nevertheless, the technical and on-chain structure of the premier cryptocurrency suggests that the bear market is still fully on. In fact, the latest on-chain evaluation suggests that the price of Bitcoin is still vulnerable to downside volatility. In a new post on the X platform, on-chain analyst Boris argued that the Bitcoin price remains within market structures that ultimately lead to downside movements. This observation is based on the rising long-term holder (LTH) Active Supply Ratio, indicating an increasing level of activity within the LTH supply.
According to Boris, volatility typically emerges within the long-term holder supply before major upward price movements. This phase is characterized by the strategic distribution of Bitcoin to the right locations in preparation for market activity. As the market rises, these coins are gradually distributed to meet demand. When demand begins to weaken, the market typically transitions into a sideways structure, allowing the distribution process to continue.
Now, the Bitcoin market tends to enter a downward move once the distribution phase is complete and fresh positions are established. For instance, since the start of this increase in LTH activity, the price of BTC has fallen from around $95,000 to nearly $60,000. Interestingly, the Bitcoin price decline has not reversed the upward trend in the long-term holder supply, implying that downside movement is still a major possibility. Even if we see upward movements in the coming weeks, these are likely to represent a liquidity illusion occurring within the broader distribution phase, Boris said. The analyst noted that although the $60,000–$62,000 range appears to be a support zone, the current market structure suggests that this region may simply be acting as a liquidity generation zone within a redistribution phase. Boris concluded that, based on the current data evidence, downward price movements toward the end of the year seem to be the more probable scenario for Bitcoin. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $67,628, reflecting a 1% decline in the past 24 hours.
Recent on-chain evaluations indicate Bitcoin remains exposed to downside volatility, suggesting the bear market remains in effect. Analysts argue BTC’s price structure continues to favor downward moves, even as occasional rallies occur. This view centers on the rising Long-Term Holder Active Supply Ratio, which signals increasing activity within the LTH cohort. The analyst notes that volatility often emerges within the LTH supply before major price moves, as coins are distributed to positions prepared for upcoming market activity.
Since the uptick in LTH activity began, Bitcoin has traded from about $95,000 down toward $60,000. The upward trend in LTH supply has not reversed, implying that downside risk remains a major possibility. While short-term gains may materialize, they could reflect liquidity illusion within a broader redistribution phase, suggesting a higher probability of downward moves as the year winds down.
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