Circle stock surged about 10% in the latest session, following an approximately 86% gain over the past month. Market observers say the move reflects the backdrop of Middle East tensions that have pushed oil prices higher and could sustain inflationary pressures.

Some analysts warn that higher inflation could delay the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut timing, which would support higher yields for stablecoin issuers as they invest customer deposits in Treasuries to earn interest. WTI crude has risen about 35% since late last month, adding to the macro backdrop.

Circle reported solid growth in USDC supply in its Q4 results. FactSet shows short interest in Circle stock at about 13% of the float, a level that traders say could be cleared within roughly two days, potentially fueling a short-squeeze.

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