Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, is back in focus after Bitcoin touched a one-month high. The company added 3,015 bitcoins, lifting its holdings above 720,000 BTC and benefiting from friendlier US crypto policy signals.
Despite the Bitcoin-driven bounce and friendlier policy signals, momentum remains weak. The 90-day share-price return is down 29.35%, and the 1-year total shareholder return shows a loss of 44.19%, contrasted with a strong 3-year total shareholder return and a 73.64% gain over five years.
This underlines how sentiment tracks changing views on Bitcoin exposure and long-term risk. With shares down 29.35% over 90 days and 44.19% over the past year, yet still showing a very large 3-year return, is this a rare reset or a stock already priced for future growth? The most-followed narrative pegs the current close at $133.53 against a fair value of $663, creating a wide pricing gap.
MicroStrategy, now rebranded as Strategy, continues to execute its radical evolution from enterprise software firm to Bitcoin-native financial platform. In Q2 2025, the company reported $14.5 billion in unrealised profit under the newly adopted fair value accounting standard. This was the first full quarter in which Bitcoin appreciation flowed through to the income statement, giving the company GAAP net profitability for the trailing 12 months. While these gains are non-cash and reflect Bitcoin price movements rather than operational cash flow, they meet formal accounting standards and, critically, clear the final hurdle for potential inclusion in the S&P 500.
However, this story could unravel quickly if Bitcoin sentiment sours again or if heavy dilution from future capital raises erodes the appeal of the $663 fair value hook.
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