Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues that the biggest mistake in bitcoin valuation is surprisingly basic: investors are using static math for a moving market. In a memo shared Tuesday, Hougan said many people hear a $1 million target and immediately dismiss it because it implies a roughly 14x move from current levels.
He understands the reaction. He says he used to have it too. But after spending years studying the asset, he now thinks critics are missing “a pretty basic mistake in analyzing bitcoin’s opportunity.”
His framework starts with bitcoin as an “emerging store-of-value asset” that increasingly competes with gold. Today, that market totals just under $38 trillion by his estimate, with bitcoin still representing less than 4%. On that basis alone, $1 million looks like a stretch.
The key shift in Hougan’s analysis is that “the store-of-value market is not static.” He points to gold’s rise from roughly $2.5 trillion in 2004 to nearly $40 trillion today. If that growth trend continues, Hougan estimates the broader market could reach about $121 trillion in 10 years.
At that size, bitcoin would only need 17% share to reach $1 million. Hougan’s point is not that the outcome is guaranteed. It is that the market may be using the wrong denominator.
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