Rich by Coin

A study analyzing tokens newly listed with KRW trading pairs on Korea’s Upbit and Bithumb in 2025 finds that the typical investor faced steep losses. Median returns were -80.9% on Upbit and -82.1% on Bithumb, while the 50 tokens listed on both exchanges posted an average -69.4% loss, close to the -68.9% observed among 94 tokens listed only on Bithumb. The three-exchange comparison shows a broadly similar pattern, with Binance listing losses around -71.7%.

To gauge overall impact, the research simulated a $100 investment for each token at its first-day closing price and held until March 11, 2026. Across 59 Upbit listings, 144 Bithumb listings, and 92 Binance listings, the combined portfolio would have value about 31% of the original investment, underscoring a roughly 70% cumulative loss regardless of the exchange.

Return dispersion was wide. On Upbit, 46% of tokens fell between -75% and -90%, with an additional portion suffering extreme losses beyond -90%; only two tokens were profitable: KITE (+232.8%) and BARD (+9.3%). On Bithumb, eight tokens were profitable and 33 endured losses beyond -90%, reflecting a broader spread in listing quality. PAXG, a gold-pegged token, gained 69.0%, driven by macro gold trends rather than crypto fundamentals, illustrating that not all gains reflect project value.

The study also found that listing timing mattered. Tokens listed in the second half of 2025 performed better than those listed in the first half on both Upbit and Bithumb, a gap magnified by the broader market downtrend during 2025. Cross-listing did not guarantee superior price performance, as the average returns for tokens listed on both exchanges were nearly identical to those listed on only one.

Conclusion: The losses appear to stem from the structural dynamics of the listing event itself—concentrated first-day retail demand inflates prices, followed by regression that erodes gains for initial buyers. While the analysis uses a specific first-day close-and-hold strategy, other timing approaches could yield different results, though they require precise execution and are not representative of typical retail behavior. The findings suggest a global pattern rather than a Korea-specific anomaly, emphasizing risk inherent in investing in newly listed tokens on major exchanges.