Bitcoin’s stronger performance relative to leading U.S. stock indices is prompting fresh optimism in cryptocurrency markets, with Coinbase Institutional suggesting that the sector could be emerging from what it terms a period of “peak pessimism”. In commentary published on 13th March via social media platform X, the institutional arm of Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN) highlighted bitcoin’s resilience against U.S. equities since the beginning of March. The group argued that the cryptocurrency’s comparative strength, set against a backdrop of geopolitical instability weighing on traditional markets, may indicate a shift in investor sentiment.
Accompanying analysis included a chart tracking 90‑day rolling z‑scores for bitcoin, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, drawing on data from Coin Metrics, TradingView and Coinbase. A z‑score measures how far an asset’s performance diverges from its historical average. According to the data shared, bitcoin’s z‑score, which had fallen sharply earlier in the year, has rebounded towards neutral territory by March 2026. In contrast, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq appeared to show fading momentum over the same period.
Coinbase Institutional also pointed to broader macroeconomic developments. It noted that softer U.S. nonfarm payroll figures could challenge the prevailing narrative of a robust labour market, potentially reshaping risk appetite across global financial markets. The firm further reported a rise in its systematic leverage ratio, describing this as evidence of improving participation in crypto markets. Nevertheless, it stressed that its outlook remains measured, with analysts seeking clearer confirmation that the apparent recovery in sentiment can translate into a sustained upward trend.
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