Bitcoin’s price action has begun to show relief as the Coinbase Premium Gap flips back into positive territory after nearly ten weeks of negative readings. The gap’s move coincides with Bitcoin’s decline from around $95,000 to below $65,000 in February. The Coinbase Premium Gap measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase, the primary exchange for US-based investors, and its price on offshore platforms; it remained negative throughout Bitcoin’s correction from $95,000 to the mid-$60,000 range. Historically, a negative gap suggests that US-based traders are selling faster than buyers, while a positive gap points to renewed US demand pushing Coinbase prices higher relative to offshore markets.
Notably, the metric entered a sustained negative zone on January 1 and persisted through March 7, a period during which US spot demand was largely absent. At its worst, the gap reached -175 on February 2. As of now, the Coinbase Premium Gap has turned positive, registering +25.4, signaling the first step in a meaningful change in market structure. However, the broader price action could still move lower before a definitive bottom forms.
Bitcoin Could Still Drop To $50,000 Before Bottom. Although a few on-chain signals are slowly turning constructive, a few analysts are cautious before declaring the broader correction over. A technical analysis from crypto analyst Ted Pillows points to a longer-term technical indicator that has always coincided with Bitcoin bottoms. According to his observation, the last two major bear-market lows occurred below the 300-week exponential moving average (300W EMA).
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