Solana Faces 15% Price Drop as Exchange Balances Rise and ETF Inflows Seen

Solana’s SOL faces potential 15% downside as rising exchange balances and bearish RSI divergence appear, despite March ETF inflows.

Rich by Coin

2026-03-16

Solana (SOL) is at risk of a 15% price decline as exchange balances rise, indicating persistent selling pressure. Despite recent ETF inflows of $34 million in March, matching February’s pace, Solana’s price shows hidden bearish divergence. From March 4 to March 15, the price made a lower high while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a higher high, signaling potential continued decline.

Exchange balances have risen from 2.49 million SOL on February 2 to 2.78 million SOL, suggesting that holders are preparing to sell. Additionally, the cohort of experienced holders, who have held Solana for one to two years, reduced their reserves from 16.2% to 15%. This trend, combined with the technical indicators, suggests that Solana’s price could fall to $77 if it fails to maintain current levels above $87.