Bitcoin has extended its rally into a window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision, facing a potential “news-driven selling” dynamic. Two Prime data show weakness after meetings as markets price in a hold on rates with limited cuts. BTC has strengthened ahead of the March FOMC meeting, trading around $74,000, after eight consecutive days of gains. However, data from lenders suggests this strength may be masking repeating patterns, as the meeting historically exerts short-term downside pressure on BTC.
Looking back to 2025, BTC has posted negative returns in the 48 hours after seven of eight FOMC meetings. Even as May saw a sharp rebound, the overall trend after meetings tends to stay weak. The market is pricing in near certainty that the Fed will hold rates in the 350–375 basis point range, with futures implying only a single 25bp cut by year-end, reinforcing a higher-for-longer backdrop.
Geopolitical tensions and elevated oil near $100 per barrel could limit the Fed’s easing capacity, adding risk to sentiment. Altcoins such as ZEC and MORPHO have shown strength, with the altcoin season index at a six-month high, while XRP moves near a $14 million options battleground, indicating potential directional pressure.
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