A crypto analyst has identified an eight-year convergence pattern on the Ethereum (ETH)-Bitcoin (BTC) trading pair chart, suggesting it could signal the long-awaited onset of an altcoin season. Supported by a multi-year chart structure, the analysis centers on the ETH-BTC trading pair and outlines a unique convergence pattern that has been developing since mid-2017. The structure is visible on the weekly chart as a large descending triangle or wedge that started when ETH-BTC reached a peak around 0.16. Since that high, the pair has been compressing between a descending resistance line and a flat horizontal support level near the 0.020 zone.
Price action in the chart shows that ETH-BTC hit this peak during the 2021 bull market but failed to break the upper descending trendline of the converging pattern. Following this, the pair dropped back sharply and has continued to trend lower, now pressing into the very tip of the convergence pattern near the 0.029 level. This suggests that ETH-BTC is approaching its final stage near the apex of the descending triangle pattern. The narrowing distance between the resistance and the support suggests the market could be at a critical juncture.
CW suggests that a breakout from this point could end the trading pair’s eight-year compression within the convergence pattern. If this happens, it could signal a major shift in strength from BTC to ETH, and finally to the broader altcoin market, marking the potential onset of an altcoin season in 2026. CW emphasized in his post that the altcoin season he anticipates in this bull cycle could exceed the strength of the 2021 cycle, mirroring the explosive scale of the 2017 cycle. He argued that many investors underestimate how powerful the 2017 bull run was, noting that it delivered wider, more aggressive gains across the altcoin market than the more selective rally in 2021.
In a separate analysis, CW shared a CryptoQuant chart adding further weight to his outlook for a 2026 altcoin season. The chart tracks the CEX volume ratio of non-BTC assets versus Bitcoin, excluding stablecoins, and compares the current market setup to the 2021 altcoin season. In both periods, altcoin trading activity on centralized exchanges was consistently higher than Bitcoin’s volume. However, CW notes that this activity has been running for much longer in 2026 than in 2021. He believes this sustained volume, coupled with a potential breakout from ETH-BTC’s current convergence pattern, strengthens the case of a powerful altcoin season in 2026.
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