Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Million in a Decade, Analyst Says

An analyst argues Bitcoin’s future value hinges on its share of the growing store-of-value market and ETF demand, with conservative assumptions backing a $1 million price target within a decade.

Rich by Coin

2026-03-22

Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market cooled after peaking in 2025, with the CoinMarketCap 20 Index down more than 30% from its late-2024 levels. In a note to investors, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan argues that Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin under a set of reasonably conservative assumptions, using a market-cap framework for store-of-value assets. The analysis rests on two pillars: the store-of-value market continuing to grow, and Bitcoin capturing a larger share of that market, from about 4% today to 17%.

Beyond the store-of-value narrative, the rise of Bitcoin ETFs could bolster institutional demand, with holdings of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF rising as more funds allocate to the digital asset. Disclosures show the publisher and certain individuals have positions in Bitcoin and related funds. While historical gold performance informs the thesis, the article cautions that future returns are not assured and that liquidity and other factors could influence outcomes.

How “reasonably conservative” are those two assumptions? Gold has produced excellent returns over the past 20 years, but there’s no guarantee the next decade will look anything like recent history. Gold’s recent run has boosted its longer-term gains, and its average annual return from 2005 to 2023 was about 8%. Yet the gold market more than doubled from 2024 to 2025, suggesting a potential mean reversion that could influence Bitcoin’s outlook.