According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike at the April 29 meeting is 12.4%. This figure did not exist a week ago, and bets on any rate cuts for that meeting have fallen to 0%. It directly affects Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market that had rallied on expectations of rate cuts in 2026 over the past several months. FedWatch currently shows an 87.6% probability of a rate hold and a 12.4% probability of a rate increase in the 375-400 basis point range.
The Fed held rates at 3.5% to 3.75% at the March 18 meeting. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation projections were lifted to 2.7% by year-end. The updated dot plot reflects only one cut of 25 basis points, in 2026, among the previously two. At the April FOMC meeting, the probability of rates staying in the current 350-375bp range is 82.5%, and the probability of a cut to 325-350bp is 17%.
FedWatch currently shows an 87.6% probability of a rate hold and a 12.4% probability of a rate increase in the 375-400bp range. Analyst Ash Crypto warned that increased odds of a rate hike next month are worrisome. Atlanta Fed’s market probability tracker shows the probability of a rate hike within three months has overtaken the probability of a cut for the first time. Brent crude rose about 50% since Feb 28, when US-Iran tensions began, reaching $112 per barrel.
Inflation expectations rose to 5.2%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed held rates at 3.5% to 3.75% at the March 18 meeting. Bitcoin fell to $68,739 from around a six-week high near $76,000 last week. The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 over this period was about 89%.
Analyst DefiWima warned that probability of a rate hike by year-end in the swap market exceeds 50%. The implications of a reduced rate-hike probability for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are clear. If oil stays above $100 and the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, the odds of a Fed rate hike will continue to rise. The 12.4% odds are small, but a sizeable difference from 0% a week ago.
For the crypto market, the direction of change in probability matters more than the level itself. Kalshi shows the probability of rate cuts increasing to 64% by 2027. Trader MarketSync calls the rate re-pricing headline noise, noting that 93.8% of futures contracts imply no rate hike at the next meeting. Others expect crude prices to fall and the Fed to cut rates later in spring.
FedWatch 12.4% Rate Hike Odds and Crypto Market Impact. FedWatch by CME currently assigns an 87.6% probability that policy will hold and a 12.4% chance of a rate increase in the 375-400 basis point range for the April 29 meeting. This marks a shift from last week, when rate hikes were not expected and cuts had faded to 0%. The market still prices the March 18 decision to hold in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, with a 25bp cut only reflected in 2026 dot plots.
The revised projections indicate only one 25bp cut in 2026, underscoring a complex policy path that affects the crypto rally tied to expectations of future easing. Bitcoin moved from near 76,000 to 68,739 in the recent period, with the S&P 500 showing a high correlation of about 89%. Core PCE inflation projections were lifted to 2.7% by year-end, adding to the debate over monetary tightening versus accommodative stances. Market participants also note evolving expectations around policy timing, as market probabilities continue to shift with new data and geopolitical tensions influencing energy prices and inflation outlook.
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