Flare Network cofounder Hugo Philion predicted $1 billion in XRP locked on Flare last year and believed it could surpass $5 billion by mid-2026. Six months after launch, Flare XRP DeFi averages fewer than 80 new users per day. Flare Bridged XRP, a 1:1 representation of XRP on Flare, launched in September 2025 after Philion pitched XRP’s DeFi breakthrough with a billion-dollar, 500% growth target around the corner.
On-chain data shows the DeFi ecosystem averages 76 new users per day since launch, with the median day attracting 33 people. By the study’s definition of a “new user”—a wallet that first interacted with the FXRP ecosystem via a mint, swap, burn, borrow, or repay—more than half of the days since launch saw fewer than 50 entrants. The data also shows brief spikes followed by rapid decay.
On February 27, 2026, new users peaked above 2,000, coinciding with Flare’s one-click Xaman wallet integration, but the number fell to under 30 within two weeks. A similar pattern emerged in September 2025 with a 467-user spike on FAssets’ launch, followed by a drop of more than 90% a week later. Excluding sparse days with spikes above 500, the six-month average remains under 50, and the last seven days have averaged 60 new users.
Within the XRP ecosystem, the economics have fared no better. An XRP enthusiast on X claimed Flare XRP DeFi had more than $149 million in value secured and that user growth was accelerating, a claim not reflected in on-chain activity. FXRP has roughly 138 million tokens in circulation and about $190 million in bridged assets, yet fewer than 80 daily users underscores the lack of widespread adoption, and the FlareDrop program concluded on January 30, 2026. Philion has nevertheless raised his forecast, predicting Flare could hold 5 billion XRP by mid-2026, a target worth roughly $6.9 billion given XRP’s price around $1.37.
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