Asset manager Bitwise argues that Bitcoin has already priced in a tighter monetary policy, potentially leaving equities more exposed to macro shocks. BTC was trading around $66,847.50, staying below the $70,000 mark and down more than 23.7% year-to-date as macro conditions tighten. Bitwise contends that Bitcoin has adapted to the tighter environment, while stocks have only recently begun to fall. Geopolitical tensions and energy supply disruptions, notably potential Hormuz Strait issues amid US-Iran tensions, have driven crude and gas prices higher, lifting inflation expectations and prompting a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate-cut bets.
Traders now price roughly a 40% likelihood of no rate cut, a sharp rise from sub-3% previously. “Energy prices are closely linked to inflation expectations,” said Luke Deans, Bitwise’s senior researcher, adding that the surge has shifted policy pricing toward further tightening. Equity markets have faced selling pressure, with the S&P 500 down about 8% over the past month. Bitwise argues that Bitcoin may have already completed its adjustment and remains highly liquid, making it more reactive to changes in risk sentiment.
The Mayer multiple versus the 200-day average has stayed in the lower tail of its historical range since January, suggesting broad re-pricing. Bitcoin’s dominance is strengthening market structure, and Bitwise notes rising correlations among altcoins, indicating a BTC-led, single-factor environment. The report also mentions that the cryptocurrency has been in a downtrend since October 2025, reflecting shifts in liquidity and investor risk appetite.
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