XRP failed to push past the critical short‑term resistance at $1.60 last week and has slid about 8%, settling back into the $1.35–$1.40 trading range. Market analyst Sam Daodu says three connected problems explain why recent rallies have fizzled and what must change for a sustainable recovery. First, Bitcoin dominance remains high, hovering around 58.6% for much of 2026 and staying above 58% most of the time. Historically, broad altcoin rallies tend to begin when Bitcoin dominance falls below 50% and capital rotates from BTC into smaller tokens, but that rotation has not occurred this cycle.
Second, large holders have been steadily taking profits since XRP hit $3.65 in July 2025. Daodu estimates roughly $6 billion in XRP has been sold by whales since that peak, with substantial volumes continuing to flow onto exchanges. Third, a large portion of holders sits underwater, which creates persistent resistance near the current price.
Glassnode data cited by Daodu show about 60% of circulating XRP is held at a cost basis above today’s levels, with the average cost basis near $1.44. As price nears breakeven around $1.45, holders in the red are likely to exit, creating immediate resistance. Even if XRP clears $1.45, further layers of selling are likely: positions across the $1.40–$3.65 range contain clusters of holders looking to return to breakeven or better. ETFs focused on XRP add another structural constraint, with AuM falling from about $1.65 billion to around $1 billion and weekly inflows of roughly $1.9 million unlikely to meaningfully soak up supply, and the CLARITY Act could be a catalyst if enacted.
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