Ethereum March Outlook: Key Supports and On-Chain Signals

ETH rises 2.93% in March, first monthly gain in months, with key support near $1,970 and notable on-chain indicators to watch.

Rich by Coin

2026-03-29

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The Ethereum (ETH) price has risen 2.93% in March, marking the first monthly gain since a six-month bear market that saw ETH shed more than half of its value from September through February. As March nears its end, questions loom about whether the uptick can be sustained, or if selling pressure will push the price back into a downtrend that could extend into a seventh consecutive month of decline. Crypto market metrics show a challenging picture: CryptoRank’s monthly performance highlights losses in September through February, while March’s 2.93% rise stands out as the sole green figure in the period.

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On the four-hour chart, ETH peaked at around $2,380 on March 16 before the price slid within a down-channel, dragging ETH toward roughly $1,970. The price remains within this channel, signaling ongoing bearish pressure. Key support sits around $1,970 (the $1,972 level). Since early March, this zone has acted as a floor for the price.

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If the four-hour close falls below $1,970, the next strongest support near the 0.618 Fibonacci region and the channel’s lower boundary could come into play. Below $1,910 and $1,830 lie additional supports; breakdown below $1,830 would confirm a channel breakout, potentially targeting around $1,650 as the next objective. However, a further decline would likely take time to materialize. On the upside, a move back above $2,050 would offset some short-term downside risk, with the upper boundary near $2,110 acting as a genuine resistance.

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Bitcoin/ETH on-chain signals show whale activity and momentum shifts: Ethereum whale wallets (excluding exchange wallets) held around 122.73 million ETH in the most recent window, down slightly from 122.91 million ETH. Santiment’s money-flow index (MFI), a momentum measure reflecting volume, registered a bearish divergence over the same period, suggesting fading buying pressure even as the price edged higher. If broader market weakness persists, these indicators imply ETH may struggle to preserve March’s gains.