Bitcoin is facing renewed stress as nearly half of the circulating supply trades at a loss, with the Bitcoin Impact Index surging to 57.4. Long-term holders—wallets held for more than six months—now have about 4.6 million BTC underwater, roughly 30% of their total holdings. The index measures financial stress for bitcoin user cohorts based on onchain behavior, ETF and derivatives activity and liquidity flows, and its jump to 57.4 represents the steepest climb since January. That level, ranging up to 100, lands the index squarely in the high impact zone that has historically signaled broad selloffs.
Long-term holders, when BTC traded above $70,000, were in profit just a week ago; now they face material losses. Their realized losses last week were the worst since 2023.
The report also notes that 47% of the total bitcoin supply is currently held at a loss, a level not seen since the market’s most stressed stretch in February. Daily stablecoin net flows flipped from inflows to outflows, while ETFs and miners moved from accumulation to selling. Despite these signs, on-chain data shows that holders are not rushing to deposit BTC on exchanges en masse, suggesting some resilience despite mounting stress.
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