Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has reached its highest level since 2022.
The cryptocurrency’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has reached about 0.80.
This marks its highest level since 2022 and, over the past decade, the second strongest on record.
Bitcoin’s stock correlation turned positive in 2020.
Over the past five years, Bitcoin generally moved in the same direction as tech-centric indices.
In 2023, this pattern briefly broke.
The directional correlation with the Nasdaq remains high, but its quality has deteriorated.
The ‘pain gap’ has risen to levels not seen since the end of 2022.
When stocks fall, Bitcoin tends to fall more.
Crypto’s structural liquidity remains thin.
Stablecoin supply remains stagnant, ETF inflows have slowed, and exchange depth has not recovered to early 2024 levels.
Over the past 41 days, the crypto market has shed about $1.1 trillion in market capitalization, equivalent to about $270 billion per day.
Bitcoin itself fell about 25% last month, slipping below $95,000.
U.S. stock market futures had just opened, and cryptocurrency weakness over the weekend did not fully drag them down.
Gold has surpassed $4,100 per ounce, outperforming Bitcoin by about 25 percentage points since early October.
The 25% decline in crypto further supports a leveraged, liquidation-driven bear market.
In this environment, with high correlation and thin liquidity, Bitcoin is acting less as a defensive hedge and more as a high-beta speculative asset.
Whether this dynamic is temporary or structural will depend on risk sentiment, liquidity conditions, and investor positioning over the coming months.
Can Bitcoin still be considered a safe-haven asset?
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