Analysts warn the XRP market is structurally fragile, reflecting a top-heavy supply dynamic.
Glassnode reports over 41% of the total XRP supply—about 26.5 billion coins—are underwater, while the share in profit has fallen to 58.5%, the lowest since November 2024 when XRP traded around $0.53.
Even with markedly higher current levels around $2.15, 41.5% of supply remains in loss, signaling a market dominated by late buyers.
Nasdaq began trading a spot XRP ETF, ticker XRPC, on November 13 from Canary Capital.
First-day turnover reached $58 million, the best result among this year’s ETF launches and beating a forecast of about $17 million.
Since launch, the ETF vehicle has drawn $268 million, while Canary currently manages about $257 million in assets.
By the end of the week, four spot XRP ETFs were expected to win approval, with three more due to launch within 21 days.
Traders hope the ETF wave will revive XRP’s bullish trend, while JPMorgan analysts estimate inflows into spot XRP ETFs could reach $4–8 billion in the first six months.
Technically, XRP has hit resistance at $2.2; reclaiming that level could extend the uptrend.
According to Marzel, XRP is consolidating above the key $2 mark in a pennant pattern, which could signal a price floor.
A breakout above $2.62 would turn bullish, while a close below $2 would invalidate the pattern, with volume spikes likely indicating the breakout before late Q4.
Santiment’s analysts noted that XRP has entered a “favourable buy zone.”
They used the MVRV metric to determine it: the lower it is, the higher the probability of a swift recovery.
The reading for Ripple’s cryptocurrency stands at -10.2%.
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