XRP may now be on track to record its first yearly loss in the past three years, but a market expert believes this could be a bullish sign. On the monthly timeframe, XRP has witnessed two consecutive losing candlesticks, and is on track to record a third one amid a 13.22% drop this month, December. With XRP now on track to record another yearly loss, Cobb believes the next year, 2026, could be similarly bullish for XRP, as the chances of a second red annual candlestick remain low. However, how much this anticipated rebound could push XRP remains unclear.
But with a 237% increase in 2024, XRP has already displayed its capacity for explosive surges. Interestingly, multiple market commentators hold similar sentiments to Cobb. For instance, earlier this month, Zach Rector presented three reasons XRP failed to hit bullish targets this year, including the late arrival of XRP ETFs, the late resolution of the SEC lawsuit, and the delay with the Clarity Act, which could pass next year. Rector argued that the impact of these developments could emerge next year, 2026.
This aligns with Cobb’s suggestion that 2026 could come with an explosive surge. Essentially, XRP used 2025 to set up the groundwork for an explosive rally next year. Investors should recognize that, despite the bullish sentiments, there is no guarantee XRP will perform well next year and manage their expectations. XRP ETFs have already begun seeing massive success, recently surpassing $1 billion in net inflows.
Notably, Cobb pointed out today that XRP has not recorded two consecutive yearly candlesticks since 2021. Specifically, the last time XRP witnessed two consecutive red yearly candlesticks was when it dropped 82.49% in 2018 and then recorded a subsequent 44.75% decline in 2019. Within this period, XRP collapsed from a price of $1.97 in January 2018 to a low of $0.1925 by the end of 2019. Since then, XRP has not witnessed two consecutive yearly losses.
In fact, since the 2018 and 2019 declines, XRP has only seen one red yearly candlestick, which emerged when it dropped 59.13% during the 2022 bear market. This was largely due to the two black swan events involving Terra and FTX that year. Despite this, XRP recovered by an impressive 81.51% the next year, 2023. XRP may head into 2026 with a bullish trajectory even as it posts a yearly loss for the first time in three years, according to market observers.
On the monthly chart, XRP has logged two straight down candles and is set for a third, with December down around 13.22%, suggesting a setup that could precede a bigger move next year. Despite the year-to-date weakness, XRP posted a 237% gain in 2024, underscoring its capacity for sharp rallies. Analysts note that 2025 has laid groundwork for a possible explosive rally in 2026, with ETF inflows validating investor interest and regulatory delays potentially shifting timing. Zach Rector highlighted several headwinds this year, including late XRP ETF approvals, SEC lawsuit resolution, and Clarity Act timing, which could unfold in 2026.
However, observers caution that no guarantee exists and risk management remains essential. XRP ETFs have crossed $1 billion in net inflows, reinforcing the narrative of renewed investor enthusiasm. Historically, XRP has not produced two consecutive red yearly candlesticks since 2018-2019; the last two-year red stretch occurred in 2018-2019, driven by Terra and FTX. The subsequent rebound in 2023 illustrated XRP’s resilience, and markets are watching whether the 2025 groundwork can translate into a similar 2026 rally.
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