Bitcoin was around $88,700, near the average cost basis for U.S. spot ETF holders, a level on-chain analysts describe as a natural inflection point heading into the final trading week of 2025. A sizable share of ETF capital sits near breakeven, and analysts say fresh demand is needed to absorb overhead supply, or holders with flat returns may reassess exposure before year-end. Bitcoin briefly touched $90,000 earlier in the week but failed to hold as participation thinned ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Ethereum outperformed, reclaiming roughly $3,000, while Solana and BNB traded near $126 and $855 respectively. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization has edged past $3 trillion, signaling stabilization rather than expansion. With major U.S. markets closed for Christmas, liquidity is expected to drop sharply, amplifying the risk of outsized moves in either direction.
On-chain metrics show capital staying cautious but not fleeing; transfer volumes remain stable, and futures open interest edged lower while perpetual funding rates stayed positive, leaving remaining long positions exposed. The primary downside risk remains a clean break below $88,000, which could trigger renewed testing of deeper support levels as ETF holders near breakeven turn defensive. Conversely, a sustained reclaim of $92,000 would suggest overhead supply is clearing.
This week’s economic calendar is light but relevant; third-quarter GDP and consumer confidence data, released Tuesday, will shape risk sentiment heading into the holiday break, followed by jobless claims on Wednesday. Any weakness in confidence indicators could tilt sentiment quickly in low-volume conditions.
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