XRP trades below $2 as bearish technicals persist, but strong ETF inflows and pro-crypto regulation support a bullish medium-term outlook. Pro-crypto leadership at the SEC and CFTC raises expectations for regulatory clarity, a historically powerful catalyst for XRP price rallies. Despite whale distribution, analysts see ETF absorption and easing supply as a setup for a potential breakout beyond $2.5–$3.0.
The US XRP-spot ETF market extended its inflow streak to six consecutive weeks in the reporting week ending Friday, December 19. Regulatory clarity would alleviate concerns about future enforcement under a Democratic-led SEC, unlocking the door to more regulatory-conservative investors. CFTC Chair Selig stated on X: “Today begins a new chapter for the CFTC. We are at a unique moment as a wide range of novel technologies, products, and platforms are emerging, retail participation in the commodity markets is at an all-time high, and Congress is poised to send digital asset market structure legislation that will cement the U.S. as the Crypto Capital of the World to the President’s desk.” No agency is better suited to pioneer common-sense rules of the road for the new financial markets of America’s Golden Age than the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
XRP’s reaction was limited to the official announcement, with traders awaiting the Market Structure Bill’s markup. There are 10 XRP active ETP filings according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Santiment’s XRP chart shows sentiment in the Fear zone, a bullish price indicator. Market sentiment toward the Fed and the BoJ’s rate paths, coupled with demand for XRP-spot ETFs and the Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill, supports a bullish outlook.
For context, the House of Representatives passed the Market Structure Bill to the Senate on July 17, triggering a 14.69% XRP rally on the day. XRP-spot ETF demand crucial to the token’s price outlook, new spot ETF filings and launches are likely to influence sentiment. XRP fell 1.0% on Monday, December 22, following the previous day’s 0.58% loss, closing at $1.9032. The token underperformed the broader crypto market, which slipped 0.08%.
The short-term (1-4 weeks) outlook remains cautiously bullish, with a $2 price target. The medium-term (4–8 weeks) and longer-term (8–12 weeks) outlooks remain constructive, with price targets of $2.5 and $3.0, respectively. Over the 6-12 month timeline, a perfect storm of bullish events would support a return to the all-time high $3.66, bringing $5 into play. With the whale offload likely to abate, the prospect of more spot ETF launches reinforces the bullish price outlook.
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