The price of bitcoin, the world’s most well-known cryptocurrency, soared above $126,000, a record, this year, but those gains evaporated. The rise and subsequent retreat of bitcoin perfectly encapsulates the crypto industry’s year. Bitcoin’s supporters see reasons for optimism in the broader outlook for markets in 2026. The prospect of lower interest rates is generally beneficial to risk assets and could both fuel retail appetite for and institutional investor interest in crypto.
The coming wave of capital implied by major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch offering access to crypto ETFs to their clients, and big university endowments like those of Harvard and Brown buying in, could also lift bitcoin next year, Hougan said. Their collective performance was mixed: Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) hit it big and retained some of its early-won gains, as did Bullish (BLSH). Bitcoin’s permabulls broadly expect prices to continue to go higher—if not next year, then by the end of the decade. Standard Chartered, for example, sees it hitting $500,000 by 2030.
Galaxy Digital, a financial services firm focused on digital assets, in its 2026 outlook said bitcoin will hit $250,000 by the end of 2027 but called next year “too chaotic to predict.” Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, climbed above $126,000 this year to a new high but later pulled back, a move that many see as emblematic of the year’s crypto market dynamics. The rise and retreat have been used to summarize the sector’s performance over the period, underscoring how volatility and cyclical shifts shape investor sentiment. Looking ahead to 2026, proponents expect reasons for optimism as macro conditions potentially improve for risk assets.
A drop in interest rates would typically bolster appetite for crypto among both retail and institutional buyers. The anticipated influx of capital from major banks offering crypto ETFs, along with growing allocations from large university endowments such as Harvard and Brown, could further lift Bitcoin’s trajectory, according to experts like Hougan. In this mixed backdrop, institutional access to crypto products is seen as a key driver of the next phase. Performance across market participants has been uneven.
Some players, including Circle with its stablecoin CRCL and the Bullish platform, posted notable gains, while the broader community remains cautious about short-term direction. Projections vary widely: Standard Chartered has suggested a long-run target near $500,000 by 2030, while Galaxy Digital’s 2026 outlook places Bitcoin around $250,000 by the end of 2027 but cautions that next year may be too unpredictable to forecast precisely.
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