Dogecoin price has been in a strong freefall this year, erasing over 63% of its value and underperforming other blue-chip tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE was trading at $0.123 on December 28, down roughly 72% from its peak this year.
The decline has been attributed to the broader crypto market crash that reduced total token valuations from over $4.2 trillion to about $2.9 trillion. The meme-coin sector has also weakened, with the market cap of meme coins tracked by CoinGecko dropping from over $100 billion to $39 billion this year. The token also faced reduced influence from Elon Musk after his DOGE-related role ended earlier this year.
Additionally, spot DOGE ETFs launched by Grayscale and Bitwise have failed to gain inflows, with assets totaling about $5 million among a market cap above $20 billion. The crypto Fear and Greed Index tumbled to fear, and futures open interest declined to $1.5 billion from nearly $6 billion earlier in the year.
Looking ahead to 2026, there are signs of further downside. On the weekly chart, DOGE slipped below the 50-week EMA and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, reinforcing a bearish outlook. The chart also shows a head-and-shoulders pattern; the most likely 2026 target is the year-to-date low of $0.090, with potential support near $0.0493 if downside pressure persists. A crash below that level will point to more downside, potentially to the important support level at $0.0493, its lowest level in 2023, and 60% below the current level.
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