Red December hints rebound; January averages +59% with ETF inflow support. RSI bullish divergence helps, but bearish crossover and shorts limit momentum. The Solana price is down about 12% over the past 30 days. January has been a strong month for Solana.
The average return sits near 59%, with median gains around 22%. ETF data backs that idea. Since launch, Solana spot ETFs have not posted a single week of net outflows. That steady demand signals selective confidence in SOL at a time when other majors face withdrawals.
Investors aren’t rotating wholesale out of Bitcoin and Ethereum into the altcoin market. They prioritize a small group of liquid, well-known tokens where downside feels controllable, and positions can be closed quickly if needed. On the two-day chart, the SOL price made a lower low between November 21 and December 17, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index, a momentum gauge showing overbought/oversold strength) made a higher low. That is a bullish divergence and can indicate early trend reversal if buyers follow through.
But a bearish condition sits right beside it. On the same timeframe, the 100-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average, a trend-tracking line that reacts faster to price) is on the verge of crossing below the 200-period EMA. If that bearish crossover confirms, downside pressure could continue into late December or early January before any recovery can stick. The trade is defined by two thresholds.
Above $129, bullish momentum allows room to move toward $150 and $171. Below $116, buyers lose control, and January’s usual strength may not show up. A cost-basis heat map tracks where large groups of holders acquired their tokens, which highlights zones where supply or demand may cluster. On the downside, $116 stays the fail-safe.
Losing that level breaks the historical “red December, green January” trend and sets up continuation of the downtrend. A confirmed bearish EMA crossover, accompanied by a break below $116, would reset expectations for the month.
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