Bitcoin could reach $150,000 to $250,000 in 2026, supported by ETF inflows, expanding institutional adoption, and looser monetary policy. A bearish view warns of drawdowns to around $70,000 or lower if demand weakens or macro conditions tighten. Rather than the four-year halving cycle alone, liquidity, regulation, and sustained institutional participation are now viewed as the key forces shaping Bitcoin’s 2026 trajectory.
Tom Lee expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of 2026, driven by expanding institutional allocations and structural inflows from spot ETFs. He believes institutional participation may fundamentally alter Bitcoin’s traditional market cycles. Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, warned clients that a sharp pullback could occur in early 2026, with BTC potentially falling to $60,000 to $65,000 before resuming higher. Farrell emphasized the difference in time horizons: Lee speaks to long-term, low-allocation institutional investors, while Farrell focuses on active, higher-risk crypto portfolios.
According to @_FORAB, Tom Lee’s Fundstrat stated in its latest 2026 cryptocurrency strategy advice to internal clients that a significant correction is expected in the first half of the year, completely contradicting Tom Lee’s public statements. Brad Garlinghouse: Bitcoin could hit $180,000 by end-2026. At Binance Blockchain Week in December 2025, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse predicted Bitcoin could hit $180,000 by end-2026. Sharing the stage, Solana Foundation President Lily Liu offered a more conservative view, saying Bitcoin could trade above $100,000, while Binance CEO Richard Teng declined to give a number but said prices would be “higher than today.”
JPMorgan: Bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted fair value near $170,000, using a BTC-to-gold relative valuation model; the bank frames this as a theoretical upper bound, not a year-end target, signaling upside potential over the next six to 12 months rather than a guaranteed destination. Standard Chartered: The bank now expects BTC to reach $150,000 in 2026, down from $300,000, reflecting slowing ETF inflows and broader market weakness; while the bank remains bullish long-term, it believes Bitcoin’s timeline has stretched. Bernstein: Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026, driven by institutional capital and spot-ETF inflows; the firm believes Bitcoin is no longer bound by the traditional four-year halving cycle, instead entering an extended institutional bull phase; longer-term, it maintains target up to $1 million by 2033. Katherine Dowling (BSTR): BTC to $150,000 by end-2026, citing three tailwinds: clearer U.S. crypto regulation; a shift toward looser monetary policy (rate cuts, end of QT); growing Wall Street adoption of Bitcoin ETFs (1%–4% allocations).
Citigroup: Base case $143,000; Bear case around $78,500; Bull case around $189,000 if institutional and retail demand accelerates; current near $88,000; the bank flags $70,000 as a key support level. Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin could break above roughly $124,000 in 2026 and further challenge the ~$200,000 level. Per Wu Blockchain, Hayes’ “logic chain” is: money-supply expansion → inflation pressure → investors rotate into scarce-supply assets (like BTC) as a hedge. Tom Lee forecasts BTC at $200,000-$250,000 by year-end 2026, and Garlinghouse remains optimistic near $180,000 with other forecasters targeting roughly $150,000.
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