Long-term holders are a critical cohort heading into 2026, and ongoing distributions signal rising downside risk as the year begins. Historically, sustained distributions from long-term holders often precede extended consolidation or deeper corrections, underscoring a cautious near-term outlook for XRP. If conviction remains weak into 2026, downside risk could intensify.
Analysts project a pragmatic price path for the early part of the year. XRP will likely continue to consolidate and trade between $2 and $2.50 in January and Q1 2026, unless a decisive macro catalyst emerges. A mild start to 2026 is anticipated for XRP, with the forecast suggesting the first months may be challenging until market sentiment improves and clearer trends emerge. If market dynamics fail to coalesce, XRP could struggle in the early months of 2026 before a more discernible direction takes hold.
A sustained lack of conviction could lead to prolonged volatility and additional downside risk. However, a pickup in institutional inflows could offset weak retail demand and pave a path toward a breakout if broader macro conditions cooperate.
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