Reports of a potential delay to January 15’s Market Structure Bill markup hit XRP demand on Friday, January 9. XRP extended its losing streak to four consecutive sessions as crypto-related legislative developments overshadowed a pickup in demand for XRP-spot ETFs. Despite a four-day losing streak dragging XRP from $2.4151 to sub-$2.1 levels, the cautiously bullish short-term and bullish medium-term outlooks remain intact.
The Senate Agriculture Committee markup is a crucial step toward a Senate floor vote on the Market Structure Bill. Lawmakers need to merge the cleared text from the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee markups to set up a Senate floor vote. If passed, the Market Structure Bill would then return to the House for final passage, and eventually to President Trump for signing. Notably, XRP remains highly sensitive to crypto-related legislation despite court rulings in the SEC vs. Ripple case classifying the token as a non-security.
For context, in July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test. The SEC appealed against the ruling in early January 2025 but withdrew its appeal after SEC Chair Gary Gensler departed the agency. The US Court of Appeals approved the SEC and Ripple’s appeal withdrawals in August 2025, cementing Judge Torres’ ruling and setting the stage for a US XRP-spot ETF market. Price action underscored XRP’s sensitivity to regulatory developments.
XRP rallied 14.69% on July 17 in reaction to the US House of Representatives passing the Market Structure Bill to the Senate. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.39%. Additionally, XRP surged 33% to an eight-week high of $2.4151 on the Senate Banking Committee announcing the January 15 markup on December 31. Crucially, the announcement snapped a four-week losing streak, setting up a bullish structure.
Developments over the weekend will be key to XRP’s cautiously bullish near-term outlook. Delays to the Senate Agriculture Committee markup may push back the timeline for a Senate floor vote to Q2 2026, potentially slowing institutional demand. The US XRP-spot ETF market steadies after an outflow blip. While crypto-related regulatory headlines weighed on market sentiment, the US XRP-spot ETF market saw a pickup in demand after January 7’s first day of net outflows.
XRP-spot ETF inflows remained strong, with net inflows of $8.72 million and $4.93 million on January 8 and January 9, respectively, extending the weekly inflow streak to nine consecutive weeks. Despite the improved demand for XRP-spot ETFs, the 21Shares XRP ETF (TOXR) remained a drag on the broader market, with net outflows of $7.77 million since launch. TOXR’s flow trends underpinned the importance of first-to-market advantage. The Canary XRP ETF (XRPC), the first pure US XRP-spot ETF, has seen total net inflows of $393.66 million since launch, leading Bitwise, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton’s spot ETFs.
21Shares XRP ETF’s outflows may draw the attention of other ETF issuers, potentially delaying new XRP-spot ETF filings. This week, WisdomTree withdrew its S-1 form for an XRP-spot ETF, while Morgan Stanley filed S-1s for a BTC-spot and SOL-spot ETF, dubbed the XRP snub. Despite recent spot ETF-related developments, strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs supports a cautiously bullish short-term and bullish medium-term price outlook for XRP. The US XRP-spot ETF market has seen total net inflows of $1.22 billion since launching on November 14.
However, the US SOL-spot ETF market has reported net inflows of $816.92 million despite launching in October. By contrast, the US BTC-spot ETF market has had net outflows of $2.69 billion since XRPC launched on November 14. The XRP-spot ETF market divergence has fueled speculation about decoupling from Bitcoin and the broader market.
Resilient demand for XRP-spot ETFs and the ongoing progress of the Market Structure Bill affirm the cautiously bullish short-term (1-4 weeks) outlook, with a $2.5 price target. Meanwhile, increased real-world utility, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and optimism over the Senate eventually passing the Market Structure Bill reinforce the positive longer-term price targets. Medium-term (4–8 weeks): $3.0. Longer-term (8–12 weeks): $3.66.
Several events could derail the positive outlook. These include a hawkish neutral rate from the Bank of Japan, signaling multiple rate hikes. A higher neutral rate would likely trigger a yen carry trade unwind, unraveling the short-term outlook. US economic indicators and the Fed are dampening bets on a March rate cut. Market Structure Bill faces partisan opposition.
Market Structure Bill faces partisan opposition. XRP-spot ETFs report outflows. These events would likely fuel a sell-off, sending XRP below $2, which would signal a bearish trend reversal.
XRP fell 1.37% on January 9, following the previous day’s 2.01% loss, closing at $2.0926. The token came under heavier selling pressure than the broader crypto market cap, which declined 0.49%. Four consecutive daily losses left XRP trading below the 200-day EMA, while holding above the 50-day EMA. While the EMAs suggest a bullish near-term but bearish longer-term bias, the fundamentals remain bullish and dominate.
Near-term price drivers include XRP-spot ETF flows. US economic indicators and the Fed’s policy stance. US crypto-related regulatory developments. Avoiding a drop below the $2 psychological support level will be key for the short- to medium-term outlook.
Bullish fundamentals continue to counter bearish long-term technicals, suggesting a rebound. Despite this recent reversal, the early January rally has reinforced the bullish structure and constructive short- to medium-term bias. Viewing the daily chart, a breakout above $2.2 would pave the way toward the 200-day EMA. A sustained move through the 200-day EMA would signal a bullish trend reversal.
The bullish trend reversal opens the door to retesting the $2.5 resistance level. Crucially, a sustained move through the 200-day EMA would reaffirm the bullish medium-term outlook and the longer-term (8–12 weeks) $3.66 price target.
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