About 26% of institutional respondents and 21% of non-institutional respondents say the current cryptocurrency market is in a bear phase. This view aligns with signals from the bull-bear market cycle indicator, which has remained below zero since October, suggesting Bitcoin is in a bear market. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, attributes weak demand as the primary driver, noting that Bitcoin appears to be in the early stages of a bear market.
Since the October 2025 deleveraging event, bear-market recognition has risen, but actual investor behavior has trended in the opposite direction. Coinbase and Glassnode reports show that 62% of institutions and 70% of non-institutions have kept or increased exposure to crypto assets. Additionally, 49% of institutional respondents and 48% of non-institutional respondents say they would maintain their asset allocations even if prices fell more than 10%, while 31% and 37% would buy more on such dips. This confidence extends to valuations, with 70% of institutions and 60% of non-institutions viewing Bitcoin as undervalued.
Analysts from Coinbase Institutional Global Research and Glassnode also describe a constructive view for the crypto market in early 2026, highlighting easing inflation, solid GDP growth, and potential 50 basis points of rate cuts. They caution that a rapid inflation rebound, energy shocks, or heightened geopolitical tensions could temper risk assets. The sentiment data also show a negative 30-day MVRV for major coins, with Chainlink, Cardano, Ethereum, and XRP appearing undervalued and Bitcoin only mildly undervalued. CyrilXBT notes that the current fear level remains, but has not reached panic, suggesting a period of quiet position rebalancing before a clearer direction emerges.
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