XRP extended a four-day losing streak as tariff threats, BoJ hawkishness, and crypto bill delays weighed on risk sentiment. Trump’s 100% tariff threat on Canada revived trade war fears, pressuring XRP and the broader crypto market. Despite near-term weakness, XRP-spot ETF inflows signal resilient demand and support a bullish medium-term outlook. XRP sees a four-day losing streak as crypto legislative delays coincide with rising geopolitical tensions and a hawkish Bank of Japan policy stance.
If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% tariff on all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A. Crucially, the US is Canada’s largest trading partner, accounting for over 70% of total Canadian exports. With a Canadian trade-to-GDP ratio of roughly 65%, a 100% tariff on goods bound for the US would materially impact the economy and global trade. Chinese manufacturers may also feel the indirect effects of 100% tariffs, with greater significance to global trade terms.
Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0. Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.66. The Bank of Japan signals multiple rate hikes to reach a hawkish neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%). A higher neutral rate would narrow US-Japan rate differentials.
A narrower rate differential could trigger a yen carry trade unwind, mirroring events in mid-2024. An unwind of the yen carry trade would invalidate the bullish short-term outlook. Fading bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut. Further delays and partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
XRP-spot ETFs report outflows. Near-term price drivers include: XRP-spot ETF flow trends. Reclaiming $2 remains crucial for the short- to medium-term outlook. The bullish fundamentals, as detailed above, continue to offset bearish technicals, indicating a near-term rebound.
A breakout above $2.0 would open the door to testing the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would affirm the bullish trend reversal and validate the bullish structure, supporting the price targets: Medium-term (4–8 weeks): $3.0. Longer-term (8–12 weeks): $3.66. However, a sustained fall through the lower trendline to sub-$1.85 levels would invalidate the bullish structure, signaling a bearish trend reversal.
Looking ahead, crypto-related legislative developments will be key for XRP’s near-term price outlook. Bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill would raise expectations of the Senate passing the Bill, driving demand for XRP. However, US economic indicators, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and demand for XRP-spot ETFs will also influence the near-term price outlook. A more dovish Fed rate path and a dovish BoJ neutral rate would boost sentiment.
Strong US XRP-spot ETF inflows, the progress of the Market Structure Bill, and increased XRP utility would reaffirm the constructive bias. In summary, these price catalysts support a medium-term move to $3.0. The US Senate’s passing the Market Structure Bill would reinforce the longer-term price target of $3.66.
Beyond 12 weeks, these key events are likely to drive XRP to its all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). A breakout above $3.66 would support a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.
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