Ethereum and XRP Price Outlook as Iran Attack Odds Rise

Geopolitical tensions lift risk for Ethereum and XRP as Iran attack odds rise to 80%, with bearish chart patterns and key support levels in focus.

Rich by Coin

2026-01-29

Ethereum and XRP prices continued their downtrend on Thursday as concerns about geopolitics rose.
XRP token dropped to $1.80, down by 50% from its highest level in 2025, while ETH tumbled to $2,800.
So, what next for these tokens as the odds of a Trump attack on Iran rose?
Trump warned the regime to negotiate on its nuclear program, which he destroyed during the Midnight Hammer attack.

Iran, on the other hand, has warned that any attack will lead to a severe response.
The rising tensions also explain why the gold price has continued rising.
Gold and the Swiss franc are often seen as safe havens.
Data on Polymarket shows that the odds of an attack happening have continued rising this year.

The probability of an attack happening before the year ends has risen to 80%.
Ethereum and XRP prices are at risk because cryptocurrencies are no longer safe havens as was widely thought.
The weekly timeframe chart shows that the XRP price is hanging on a thread.
It has slumped to a low of $1.7930, a level it has failed to drop below several times since February last year.

This price is also along the neckline of the double-top pattern at $3.40.
The coin has moved below the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) and the Supertrend indicator.
It has also moved below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at $2.03.
Therefore, the most likely XRP price prediction is bearish, especially when it loses the current support.

A drop below that level will point to more downside, potentially to the 61.8% retracement level at $1.6435.
The daily timeframe chart provides a highly bearish ETH price forecast.
It has plunged below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level and is nearing the 61.8% level.
Most importantly, the coin has formed a large bearish flag pattern, which is made up of a vertical line and a horizontal channel.

It is now hovering near the lower side of the channel, meaning that a bearish breakdown may be about to happen.
If this happens, the next key support level to watch will be at the psychological level at $2,500.
A move above the upper side of the channel will invalidate the bearish outlook.

Bitcoin and altcoins have always slipped whenever geopolitical risks emerged.
Experts believe that Iran can attack American bases in the Middle East, Israel, and even shut the Strait of Hormuz.