Cardano (ADA) is trading around $0.25–$0.26 against USDT, pinned near recent lows in a market backdrop defined by extreme fear (fear & greed index at 11) and broad crypto weakness. The dominant force is risk-off positioning across crypto, and ADA sits on the wrong side of momentum, well below key daily moving averages and hugging the lower side of its volatility bands. This is a bearing-down phase of a downtrend, not yet an established bottom.
On the daily timeframe, the macro bias remains bearish as ADA trades well below the 20-, 50-, and 200-day EMAs. The RSI sits around 31.21, near oversold territory, while the MACD remains negative with limited upside momentum. Pivot levels place near-term support around $0.25 and resistance near $0.26, with the price currently near the lower Bollinger band.
On the hourly chart, ADA trades around $0.26 with the 20- and 50-EMAs at about $0.26 and the 200 EMA at $0.28. The hourly RSI is about 26.84, indicating near-term oversold conditions, and the MACD is effectively flat. Bollinger bands are tight around $0.26, suggesting an impending breakout beyond a narrow 0.25–0.27 range.
Bearish scenario: a break of $0.25 with higher volume could push ADA toward the $0.23 area, and a failure to reclaim the $0.28 level would keep the downtrend intact. Bullish scenario: a hold of $0.25 and a move above $0.26 with a test of $0.27–$0.28, followed by a rise toward $0.30, would signal a potential trend repair. In this risk-off environment, the market’s resolution appears binary: watch the $0.25–$0.26 range for a decisive move, as macro sentiment could amplify any breakout.
Leave a Reply