Bitcoin’s bull market peak occurred in the fourth quarter after the halving, consistent with historical patterns observed by Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin. He dismissed calls for a bottom near $60,000 or $80,000 as premature and warned that the market could retreat to the $40,000s or $50,000s in a fragile environment. The current state of the crypto market is unfolding almost exactly as those patterns would suggest, he said, explaining why he remained skeptical of optimistic bottom calls.
The halving, which cuts miners’ rewards roughly in half every four years, slows new coin creation and reinforces Bitcoin’s scarcity, a core part of its value proposition. This built-in supply shock has historically preceded major bull markets as reduced supply meets steady or rising demand, reinforcing Bitcoin’s positioning as digital gold with total supply capped at 21 million.
We are exactly where we should be in the four-year cycle anchored to halving events, Terpin argued. One of the most reliable elements of prior cycles has been the rough timing of the bubble peak and unwind, he added. “The bull market popped in the fourth quarter after the halving,” he notes, and the speculative blow-off typically lasts nine to 11 months; this time it was 11 months. Terpin drew a close parallel to the last cycle, noting that the highs were on Nov. 10, 2021 and the lows followed FTX’s bankruptcy on Nov. 10, 2022, exactly a year apart.
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