Coinbase Q4 Earnings Miss as Shares Rally 12%

Coinbase posted $1.71B in net revenue and a GAAP loss of $667M in Q4, hurt by unrealized crypto losses and strategic investments; analysts debate near-term headwinds and long-term diversification.

Rich by Coin

2026-02-14

Coinbase shares rose 12% Friday despite the crypto exchange missing fourth-quarter earnings expectations and reporting a significant hit from unrealized crypto and strategic investment losses. The company posted net revenue of $1.71 billion, below Wall Street estimates of $1.81 billion, while its core operating profit (adjusted EBITDA) came in at $566 million, missing the consensus of around $653 million. Coinbase reported a net loss of $667 million under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), primarily due to a $718 million unrealized loss on its crypto investment portfolio and a $395 million loss on strategic investments. Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish called Q4 a miss across the board, citing weak transaction and subscription revenues alongside higher-than-expected operating expenses.

Budish lowered his price target to $149 from $258, writing that trading activity, stablecoin-related interest income and crypto asset prices still account for most of Coinbase’s performance. Still, he acknowledged encouraging trends, including a rise in Coinbase’s share of the USDC market cap, a growing subscriber base for Coinbase One and continued share buybacks, which reduced the share count by roughly 8% quarter-over-quarter. Benchmark’s Mark Palmer echoed a more bullish long-term view. He maintained a buy rating on the stock but cut his price target in half to $267 from $421.

Clear Street’s Owen Lau noted that Coinbase’s consumer monetization is under pressure, with the retail take rate falling from 1.43% in Q3 to 1.31% in Q4. That decline, driven by a shift to advanced trading tools and the Coinbase One subscription model, reduced per-trade revenue but was partially offset by stronger engagement and cross-sell. He cut his price target to $277 from $344, citing a prolonged crypto downturn, weak retail participation and a more hawkish macro backdrop. Still, Coinbase reiterated its commitment to remaining adjusted EBITDA positive across market cycles, supported by $14.1 billion in total available resources.