Prediction market data shows ‘above $75,000’ remains the most favored February target despite weakening sentiment. On Polymarket, the single largest February outcome, at 17%, expects Bitcoin to cross $75,000. This range-bound structure suggests that prediction markets may be overestimating the probability of a breakout toward $75,000 while underestimating the growing risk of continued consolidation or a correction. Polymarket volumes, for this bet, exceed $88 million, with millions in active liquidity.
However, the probability of the $75,000 outcome has already declined by more than 50%, reflecting fading confidence. This growing caution aligns closely with Bitcoin’s technical structure. On the daily chart, Bitcoin formed a lower high between November 15 and February 16. RSI formed a higher high during the same period.
Since this divergence appeared, Bitcoin has already corrected nearly 6%. As long as this signal remains active, the probability of reaching the prediction market’s $75,000 target remains limited.
On February 5, long-term holders reduced their holdings by 244,919 BTC (30-day rolling change), a sign of extremely heavy selling. By February 21, this number improved to 81,019 BTC. This marks a roughly 67% reduction in selling pressure.
The largest Bitcoin whales, holding between 100,000 and 1 million BTC, increased their holdings from 676,540 BTC to 690,000 BTC. This represents an accumulation of about 13,460 BTC, signaling cautious buying. However, smaller whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC reduced their holdings from 2.27 million BTC to 2.26 million BTC. This means roughly 10,000 BTC were sold during the same period.
Cost basis distribution data reveals a major resistance cluster between $72,600 and $73,200. Around 149,000 BTC were accumulated in this range. These levels also appear clearly on the price chart as a major resistance zone just below $75,000. When Bitcoin approaches this area, many holders may sell to exit at breakeven.
This selling pressure creates a strong barrier that prediction markets may be underestimating. To reach the $75,000 prediction target, Bitcoin must first break above $72,200. This level represents both technical resistance and is close to one of the largest cost basis clusters on the chart. Breaking this zone would require a rally of more than 6% from current levels.
On the downside, strong support exists between $64,300 and $63,800, where approximately 150,000 BTC were accumulated. Breaking under $63,300 can make the $60,000 zone, the 12% probability bet on Polymarket, come to fruition.
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