Bitcoin (BTC) has paused after a modest rally, carving an eight-day high while building a double bottom near $62,500.
The $10.5 billion BTC options series looms large, with traders weighing whether a late bid can flip momentum or if selling pressure resumes as settlement approaches.
Deribit continues to lead the space, accounting for about 76% of turnover, while OKX and CME register smaller but meaningful shares.
In this environment, price action, tech-equity sentiment and macro developments converge to shape outcomes as traders position for what could be a pivotal weekend for BTC.
Bulls face a required roughly 9% rally from around $68,800 to tilt the balance in Friday’s $10.5 billion options expiry, underscoring how a single session can redefine near-term momentum.
The asset’s price dynamics remain tightly linked to tech sentiment, with Bitcoin showing a 90% correlation to the Nasdaq 100 Index, signaling that AI-driven earnings and risk appetite in equities can spill into crypto flows.
Put options appear structurally resilient, and a substantial portion of call bets would expire worthless if BTC stays below $70,000 on Friday, highlighting skew toward downside protection in the event of a renewed pullback.
Analysts point to a distribution of open interest across strikes that suggests potential tail-risk hedges around $60k–$75k, with three plausible expiry outcomes by price band (65k–69k, 69k–71k, 71k–74k).
The largest share of put exposure sits below the current price, while still substantial upside hedges exist at higher strikes.
If BTC trades between $65,000 and $69,000, puts have the edge by about $1.15 billion. If BTC is in the $69,001–$71,000 range, puts would still dominate by roughly $845 million.
If BTC finishes between $71,001 and $74,000, demand appears skewed toward puts with about $470 million in net exposure.
Nvidia’s earnings outcomes and their potential impact on risk appetite for AI-related growth stocks.
The observed 90% correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index illustrates the tech-led sentiment linkage.
The balance of power in the larger market hinges on the broader tech narrative.
The Nvidia earnings release and revised guidance could tilt risk appetite and inject volatility into both equities and crypto.
As the expiry nears, market participants will be watching how hedges evolve in Deribit, OKX, and CME to determine the probable path for BTC.
Three plausible expiry outcomes emerge from the current price trajectory: if BTC trades between $65,000 and $69,000, puts have the edge by about $1.15 billion; in the $69,001–$71,000 range, puts would dominate by roughly $845 million; if BTC finishes between $71,001 and $74,000, demand appears skewed toward puts with about $470 million in net exposure.
The Nasdaq linkage suggests liquidity and sentiment could hinge on tech earnings and macro developments in the near term.
The expiry dynamics underscore how hedges shape BTC’s path in the days ahead.
As the expiry nears, traders will watch Deribit, OKX, and CME open interest shifts to gauge BTC’s near-term path.
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