Polymarket has rapidly become a hub for betting on the U.S.-Iran conflict, with traders wagering on ceasefire dates, regime change and potential U.S. ground involvement. A contract on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei leaving power by March 31 drew $45 million in volume, while a long-running market on whether the U.S. would strike Iran has amassed $529 million, making it one of Polymarket’s largest ever. Onchain analysts have flagged six wallets that made about $1.2 million by correctly betting on a Feb. 28 U.S. strike on Iran, intensifying scrutiny of potential insider trading as Polymarket promotes its markets as a source of real-time geopolitical insight. It took Polymarket less than 24 hours to turn a Middle Eastern war into an active trading floor.
Since the strikes began, the prediction market has seen a flood of contracts covering ceasefire timelines to whether the regime will collapse, with bettors pricing the week the conflict ends and potential leadership changes. The February 28 date attracted $89.6 million in trading, and every daily contract from February 28 through early March resolved to yes, meaning buyers of that date profited on the binary bet about when the U.S. would strike again. The biggest market, the “US strikes Iran by…?” contract, has pulled $529 million in total volume, and the chart moved from 25%–50% to 100% after confirmation. The top trader Curseaaaaaaa earned $757,000 on a yes bet, with four others clearing six figures; ground invasion contracts also show notable volume, such as “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” at 19% with $207k and “US forces enter Iran by March 7” at 28% with $2 million traded.
Onchain analytics Bubblemaps identified six wallets suspected insiders that had made about $1.2 million in profit by betting on a U.S. strike on Iran by February 28. The largest wallet turned roughly $61,000 into over $493,000 in profit, while a second earned about $120,000 from a $30,000 position. Polymarket added a note to its Middle East markets emphasizing the promise of prediction markets to harness the wisdom of the crowd to forecast the most important events to society, and said that after speaking with people affected by the attacks they found these markets could provide answers TV news and X could not; the site also created an Iran-focused markets section.
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